Free Flight, Free Speech

I just posted this on another forum; figured I'd post it here too.

A Russian A321-200 crashed in the Sinai Peninsula of Egypt.  Kogalymavia (Metrojet) flight 9268 was a charter from the popular vacation destination Sharm el-Sheikh to St. Petersburg.  On the return leg of the trip, it took off from Sharm el-Sheikh International Airport (SSH/HESH), and the tower reported losing radar contact 23 minutes into the flight.  The tower later reported that the pilot indicated that there were mechanical issues, and was planning to divert to the nearest airport.  The plane was found in the middle of the desert of the Sinai Peninsula, 35km south of al-Arish airport.  The cause in unknown at this time, but it is assumed to be a mechanical failure, and researchers doubt that extremists had weapons capable of bringing it down.

A total of 224 people were on this flight - 217 passengers (including 17 children, 214 Russians, and 3 Ukrainians) and 7 crewmembers.  The Russian Embassy in Cairo, the Russian Federal Air Transport Agency, and the Egyptian Civilian Aviation Ministry report that all people on board flight 9268 were killed.  Rescuers arrived at the scene to find the plane split in two and hit a rock.  Over a hundred bodies have been recovered so far, five of them children.  Most were found strapped in their seats.

This is the deadliest plane crash in Egypt's history, exceeding the previous record holder, Flash Airlines flight 604 (charter), which crashed into the Red Sea after takeoff from Sharm el-Sheikh, killing 135 passengers (mostly French) and 13 crew members.
It is also the deadliest plane crash of any A321, and only the second A321 crash where people were killed, surpassing AirBlue flight 202, the deadliest crash in Pakistani history, where 146 passengers and six crew died.
It is the deadliest crash of any aircraft in the A320 Family, and deadliest of all Irish-registered aircraft.


These two charts show that the aircraft lost considerable speed and some altitude when it lost contact:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CSoe6XiWIAAUDtA.png
http://www.flightradar24.com/blog/crash ... ht-7k9268/
It was descending at over 6,000 feet per minute.


Sources:
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/worl ... /74934010/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kogalymavia_Flight_9268

Those are sad news. The Airbus 320 family hasn't a good time lately, it appears.

Having said that, there were lately some rumors, Islamic terrorists connected with ISIS got their hands on some Russian manpads and that the Muslim Brotherhood, now calling themselves the District of Sinai of the ISIS Caliphate got some of them. However, the altitude before the plane suddenly went down is way high for a terrorist with a manpad. So IS claim for responsibility seems less than credible to me. To make this happen, someone would have to stand right under the plane, fire in the exact split second and even then, the missile would make it only on the last few inches of range. But I guess, we will hear more about it. Putin seems already to cover his rear side by statring an investigation into the charter company.

@HOM001: Thanks for the report and the analysis. It is more detailed and exacting than anything I have read in the media so far. The radar charts are very helpful, though they are very sobering because of the reality when the curve suddenly drops, it means the death of everyone on board.

@JWocky: Your knowledge and expertise in weaponry to be able to describe the functional range of the Manpad puts the IS claim of taking down the plane into a clear context and completely discredits them. Nice work!

Both: Please continue to update this thread as additional information comes out regarding the crash.

Here's your update, and it's not good news.
I managed to find this, which pans around the crash site. All the ambulances are empty, and the plane itself is pretty destroyed.


Also, both black boxes have been found.

And here's an image of a piece of wreckage:

that's terrible. RIP.

I'm no expert, but from the chart, I would say explosive decompression or similar structural failure. However, if so, it would likely have been in tiny pieces.
So, a wing cracking would surely cause it to drop from sky?
I believe (no expert) it could be a decompression, causing an emergency descent, but pilots blacked out and unfortunately they crashed into terrain.

Israel, you say it all. Terrible. Rest in peace.

This picture is touching.

AND SHE IS DEAD NOW!
SHE DID NOT DESERVE TO DIE!?
WHYYYYYYYYYYYYY?

legoboyvdlp wrote:I'm no expert, but from the chart, I would say explosive decompression or similar structural failure. However, if so, it would likely have been in tiny pieces.
So, a wing cracking would surely cause it to drop from sky?
I believe (no expert) it could be a decompression, causing an emergency descent, but pilots blacked out and unfortunately they crashed into terrain.

Israel, you say it all. Terrible. Rest in peace.

Any number of things could have led to a -6,000 fpm descent. (not an expert - just wait for the Air Crash Investigations episode) It is unlikely that the pilots blacked out because they have oxygen masks which they regularly practice putting on. These are on air tanks (unlike passengers' masks) and could last for a long while - they would have easily descended to 14,000 ft where pressure is more tolerable. It also is unlikely to be an engine failure, single or dual, as they could have glided to the ground. It's unlikely to be anything involving fire or explosions, pre-impact, either.

We know this much:
1) The last-minute flight data.
2) The pilots reported technical difficulties, and proceeded to divert.
3) The aircraft, which first flew in 1997, had a tail-strike while landing at Cairo in 2001 (under Middle East Airlines).

EDIT: And that picture is like one of those new metadata-infused ones - it is full of despair, grief.

EDIT/UPDATE:

So, more details from the crash scene. Apparently the debris was scattered over a large area, with the nose 5km from the tail. The total area was 20 square km, so investigators have concluded that the plane broke up in the air.

Also, the airline is in considerable debt, on top of other financial troubles, so that could lead to some speculation. They've been ordered to inspect their entire A321 fleet.

According to the Russians, the plane was packed with families. R.I.P. 165 bodies have been recovered so far.

One family documented their trip in great detail on VK, Russia's Facebook. This was the last post:
http://i4.mirror.co.uk/incoming/article ... -crash.jpg
With the caption, "Hello Peter, Goodbye Egypt"

Flight Path:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/ ... sh.svg.png

How much of the plane is there?

All of the plane is there, just in pieces scattered over a large area.
Here are some maps of the site: (src: Russian Emergencies Ministry, Reuters)
http://s4.reutersmedia.net/resources/r/ ... XNPEBA013X
http://s4.reutersmedia.net/resources/r/ ... XNPEBA013Y
If anybody speaks Russian, or has a Cyrillic keyboard, a translation would be nice.