Plane Crash in Egypt - 224 Dead

[HJ1an]

An in flight break up is quite liekly based on what they said how large area the debris field is. The question is now, is it really a missile / bomb attack.

Every time I read news like this, I get really sad. Especially when I had just booked a flight next April, and my flight anxiety might come back again. sigh..

Also, seems like it used to be the safest part of flight is the cruise. Now the trend is flipped - there are more incidents during cruise the past few years than other part of flight it seems.

[HOM001]

It is pretty much a fact now that it broke up in mid air.

The debris field was one part of the conclusion, but apparently, the speed dropped from 400 to 50 knots within a period of 20 seconds. The -6000fpm vertical speed would support this as well.



EDIT:
More from the crash site:

[KL-666]

Here is a very telling picture.



In the background you can see the wings left to right. In the middle the retracted landing gear without rubber. The area around it is scorched, which can be seen on other pictures.

But the part in the foreground is scorched without the surrounding area scorched. This can mean only one thing. The plane burned already in the air.

For now i believe the cause is technical. Manpads indeed can not reach that alt. I doubt there are sams down there. Authorities exclude a bomb. Maybe that last conclusion is a bit early. So primaraly technical or maybe a bomb, i would say.

Btw, i would take that follow-aircraft-on-the-internet data with a huge grain of salt. It always spikes mad when things are not going as expected.

Kind regards, Vincent

[HJ1an]

The flight has had engine troubles previously. I'm just wondering if an engine had disintegrated in the same fashion as the Qantas a380, and projectiles penetrated the fuselage/fueltank would result in this.

Edit : Just noticed you mentioned the wheel without rubber. There could have been a wheel fire?

[HJ1an]

I just read on a news app that it was likely an 'external mechanical impact' brought the plane down. I can't link it, I'm on my phone and news apps are hard to link.

So. Goes back to missiles and an extremely unlikely shot?

[IAHM-COL]

That's a terrifying thought

[jwocky]

I had a little time to browse over the images. Several things caught my attention, especially in connection with the descend data:

- the main fuselage, while mostly destroyed is still together, only the rear end after the rea passenger doors actually broke off.

- rescuers arriving first reported a lot of the passengers were still strapped to their seats.

- the break-up between the end of the passenger cell and the adjacent APU compartment looks clean while the APU compartment looks like a gigantic shot gun went off there (not saying it was a shot gun or a bomb, that is only to get the picture).

So, descent of 5000-6000 fpm is steep, but it is far from free fall. Means, the plane was at FL300 still in one piece but hampered to control altitude. It was also still in one piece till about FL140 when the radar actually lost it. IF the plane would have broken up in high altitude, explosive decompression would have disintegrated the fuselage far more than it is visible in the pictures and the main part of it wouldn't be connected anymore. So conclusion: This plane broke up later, maybe in the end of the descend, maybe even on impact.
The main part of the fuselage is quite long and it lays on the ground. It didn't hit a hole into the desert, it lays on the sand virtually. The same for the smaller rear part which is only APU compartment and tail end. The same also for the wings, the one wing, I found in the images lays flat on the ground and the tanks burned out. All of this isn't consistent with a plane free-falling out of the sky, the same as it is inconsistent with the descend rate of 5000-6000 fpm. Basically the radar data and the image look to me as if they both say steep glide, not entirely uncontrolled impact after a free fall.
The interesting part is the APU compartment which is very damaged. Parts of the APU are also in the smaller debirs around. The isolation of this compartment is unburnt but ripped all over the place. So, this looks a little bit like, but please, it's only a theory, as if an engine (and that is what an APU basically is) has thrown parts of itself around at high RPM. Not only is the APU totally disintegrated in the pictures but also the remains of the compartment show all hallmarks of smaller high speed impacts.
Now, the questions are, why would an APU do that (which leads to maintenance questions or, to cover all bases, sabotage) and what would an Airbus autopilot system do in this situation till the pilots could switch it off, if they could at all. Has the Airbus AP an emergency program for decompression situations and would that maybe include a descend as steep as allowed in some preset parameters (like 5000-6000 fpm)??? Because 5000-6000 fpm means, that at an always increasing airspeed and lack of elevator control due to a damaged rear (and all the cables in it) would lead to a pitch angle just 1 or 2 degrees nose down, which would be quite consistent with the impact angle as seen in the images of the crash site. A human pilot if able to act and if he would have at least some control over the elevators would have tried to flare and take the nose up, I think. That would have reduced the damage of the cockpit area and move the forces of impact actually forward in the fuselage (the damaged tail breaks off, but then the rear of the remaining fuselage part hits the ground and causes impact force multiplied by speed and leverage to a point a little behind the original CG, that would be somewhere around where the wings were. While a little nose down in a shallow impact would apply the force on the nose section and the forward sides of the wings (which as we know, broke off).
So, no missile and as it looks to me, no bomb either. If the Egyptians and the Russians could make up their mind whether the pilot reported a technical problem ans wanted to be rerouted for an emergency landing or not, it would help with the reconstruction, but this has reached the political level, means, the covering of exposed rear-sides has started and every further information has to be reality checked, I'm afraid.

[KL-666]

Just a remark on the "wide" debris field. I heard that the Lockerbie field was at least 4 times as wide. So that would plea for a lower altitude breakup.

[edit]
The word "impact" in "'external mechanical impact" is made up by some journo. The actual word was something like "factor". This journo wants to push your thought in one direction: that it was some sort of rocket. But "factor" means anything out of the normal operations. It can also be a bomb, or something else.
[/edit]

Kind regards, Vincent

[HJ1an]

Just a remark on the "wide" debris field. I heard that the Lockerbie field was at least 4 times as wide. So that would plea for a lower altitude breakup.

[edit]
The word "impact" in "'external mechanical impact" is made up by some journo. The actual word was something like "factor". This journo wants to push your thought in one direction: that it was some sort of rocket. But "factor" means anything out of the normal operations. It can also be a bomb, or something else.
[/edit]

Either that, or a translation quirk. It does sound like it, though yeah it does seem to want to push in the direction of a missile. I just took a look at BBC, now the headline is 'external influence" caused the crash...

However, that doesn't seem to explain the debris field and breakup altitude vs. the Lockerbie one. Perhaps this is can be explained with narrowbody + wind conditions.

Also, I only just saw a diagram of the wreck on BBC, Jabberwocky's analysis seem to have a point.. the plane looks to have come down pretty much intact minus the tail section, and seemingly in a nose up position (nose cone separates away) and while moving to its right (explains the S- bend).

[KL-666]

Yes indeed pretty much intact minus some rear section. Then add to that a breakup after some dive at lower alt and fire while still in the air, and then make something of it.... Anything could cause that, also the mentioned uncontained engine disk failure. I'll wait for some more information of the people investigating the boxes now.

[edit]
If it means anything, the wreckage is laying on it's back. The cockpit is upside down, and also the wing. You can clearly see the flap mechanism, that is normally in a box below the wing, on top of the crashed wing.
[/edit]

Kind regards, Vincent