Plane Crash in Egypt - 224 Dead

[KL-666]

Have a look at this close up of the side/roof part of the tail section and notice how the metal tore off along the first rivet row.



You are looking at the top part of the section attachment just behind the windows.



The way the skin tore off is definitely not a clean fatigue crack, but an extreme pull on the metal, finally giving in at the weakest point namely the perforation for the first rivet row.

I can come up with only one explanation for such extreme pull, namely the momentum of a strong (and probably sudden) downward force at the tail. Something like depicted here.



This person thinks the jackscrew failed, but there are more possibilities, like a computer going mad, etc... Let that be determined by the investigators. One thing is for sure, the plane must be intact to put up such pull force. Making bomb stories less likely.

If you look at pictures towards the back of the tail section, you will see only the top half of the stabilizer compartment. If you look very good, there is only sand underneath, not the flat folded bottom half.



All this brings me to the following sequence of events.
1) The front of the stabilizer goes extremely down
2) The pull of the momentum in the roof makes it fail along the rivets of a production weakness. Starting from the top, stopping at the stronger attachments near the floor.
3) The stabilizers can't hold the pressure and sheer off.
4) The plane tumbles/soars/spirals further down and at 2.2 km before impact the floor cannot hold the tail section anymore and it rips off.
5) After that point the fire in the main section must have begun, because the tail section is clean of burn marks.

Kind regards, Vincent

[IAHM-COL]

that's really a very nice technical explanation of a good possible cause.
Thanks for sharing KL666

[KL-666]

I just read an article that may help open the eyes of the people that run along with the bomb theory frenzy. With TWA-800 exactly the same happened. But the hard evidence from the crash investigators proved them all wrong.

Now again secretive services are leaking so called intelligence. Well, i believe such intelligence should remain secret, because it is not worth more than that of ufo spotters and conspiracy theorists. We need hard evidence from the crash investigators.

Why the rush to judgment in the Metrojet disaster

Kind regards, Vincent

[HJ1an]

The oddity here is that (at least based on the image of the tailplane), it seems like thee stabilizer's weight is mostly to its rear, due to the taper backwards, which means it would hinge back and cause a dive if it fails. Unless a failure caused it to be jammed in a really weird way, or the stabilizers had frontal heavy weight distribution, seems to me a failure in this part would not cause that kind of deflection upwards. The only explanation I have for that would be a front-heavy weight distribution (seems unlikely), aerodynamic forces somehow, or FBW a haywire that caused it. However, again, that would have also allowed the voice recorder to record further rather than abruptly stop. The plane also has got to be tumbling really wildly for the tail to shear off like that. A violent decompression in the tail though, might cause that, then again, voice recorder would still have some time to go on before it stops(?)*

p.s. just saw that "there was an airworthiness directive for the a321 in about 2004 describing the explosion of an APU in an aircraft parked at the gate. The AD described specifically the tailcone seperating and damaging the horizontal stabilizer." so here's scenario 1B

And bomb theory part, I am just reminded of a 727 or 707 bombing, in the early 80s or late 70s, one of the first using a Casio digital watch if I'm not mistaken, that was hidden in the seat and small enough it blew a hole in the fuselage while in cruise but not enough to cause a complete rupture and break apart the fuselage which killed a Japanese passenger that worked for Sony. This all just off the top of my head, I hope it's correct (internet connection too bad to do a proper search, plus I'm at work, can't browse too much, typing is A-OK :p). This bomb wasn't enough to take down the flight during cruise, but it was enough to damage to blow a hole in the fuselage. I am thinking, a correctly placed, similarly sized explosive would take out the recorder and the controls to the tailplane, at the same time possibly causing a loss of control the pilots would have to tackle and did not have enough time to put on the oxygen masks, and weakens the tail enough to have it break of later on. Perhaps a small explosive that was placed on the ceiling storage, near the tail section.


*Japan Flight 123

[jwocky]

What if whatever caused the crash happened at the end of the climb. The plane was supposed to climb to FL310 and so it did. Then something happened. Some initial sources claimed, the pilot asked to be rerouted for an emergency landing due to a mechanical problem, but then, the plane dropped already with aboutish 5000-6000 fps. Other sources claim, there was no such communication. So, this needs to be cleared up.
The next thing in question is that muffled bang on the box. Now, the voice box records noises and talk in the cockpit. The microphones are there, not somewhere in the rear. Which means, any noise on the recording is like it was heard from the cockpit, not where it actually happened. Any popping sound due to structural failures causeing a partial break up further in the rear would sound as muffled bangs because the lower sounds will reach due to their longer amplitude (I am not sure whether I translate that correctly, so bear with me) reach the cockpit even against the air while higher pitched sounds will be filtered (we talk here basically about a vibration going against the wind speed caused by a speed of somewhat around 300 knots plus). So I guess, a lot of engineers have at this moments their formula books in their desks and try to figure how a sharp bang would change if the sound has to travel forward to the microphones before it is recorded.
The third thing is, how it looks on the pictures of the crash site. The forward part includes basically the whole plane till the pressure bulkhead. The tail is some kilometres behind. As I posted earlier, not enough kilometres away to have broken off completely in 31,000 feet altitude. The question in connection with the sound is, when was the bang on the box inrelation to the descent and the breaking off of the tail on the time line. I can't find anything about this, but maybe someone else is better at searching.

[KL-666]

What i heard about the CVR is that there was not much on it about the event. Normal operation - A sound - End recording. This implies the sound was at the start of the event.

The immediate ending of the recording can be explained by that the opening of the roof severed the wires. I could not find details of where the wires are yet. But from the wreckage it looks like a few through the roof and big bundles at the side at about ankle height. So above the floor, where i suspect the opening stopped due to more enforcement there, plus that the momentum at the bottom of the plane would be push, not pull.

The bulkhead is not visible for us because it is in the middle of the tail section, between the doors and the stabilizer section. A blowout of it could account for jamming the stabilizer's front down. But we can not say anything about it, because we do not see the bulkhead.

Kind regards, Vincent

[HJ1an]

Here's an even simpler idea. Something happened at the front the plane cutting off the recorder; passengers panicking run to the rear. Weight redistribution causes plane to climb uncontrollably, causing more people to fall to the back, cause even more weight redistribution... Well the rest we know.

What happens? Bomb, or something as simple as a 'power bank' battery explosion, or one of those huge e-cigerette vapor batteries + fire

[jwocky]

... So what kind of bulkhead is this? Not the one forward (door to the cockpit is missing).

... same part from another angle. When you read the label on the door, you can see, this part is laying upside down.

... this is the open APU compartment of an A320. I don't think, it is much different on an A321. You can clearly see the same bulkhead forward as in the crash photos.

So, maybe I am wrong, but this thing looks like the rear pressure bulkhead to me.

... now, I admittedly took this pic from one of those conspiracy websites. I have seen it in other news as well, but they had actually still some resolution on it. The point that makes me scratch my head is, if this authentic, then we see a rear entrance door here. Which obviously should BEFORE the bulkhead and the APU behind it. But then, what the heck is the bulkhead in the pics above? An A321, as far as I can find, has only two bulkhead-like walls going through the whole diameter of the fuselage: Foreard to the cockpit (which is actually no real pressure bulkhead but nowadays relative massive because it has to secure the cockpit against terrorists in the passenger cabin) and the rear one. However, this one has the one, we saw in the pics above and it had to have one before the APU compartment. Now, the A321 has a seating capacity of 220 passengers max with lowest low cost cattle class seating throughout the plane (as in one-class config). That is consistent with the number of victims (crew and passengers added up), but it means, the plane was fully loaded. There was no cut off compartment extra. So what's the story, any ideas?

[KL-666]

Your first 2 pictures are an inverted cockpit, flattened to window bottom level. The flat panel is the area where the nose cone is attached (containing the weather radar).

Your third picture is the APU section. It is not attached anymore to the tail section in picture 4. What you think is a pressure bulkhead, is a firewall.

The pressure bulkhead is between the stabilizer section and the doors.



We really can not see the rear bulkhead on the pictures, too far inside

Btw, pressure bulkheads are airtight seals at the front and the back of the tube. No humans will walk through them.

Kind regards, Vincent

[HJ1an]

You know what, I would prefer to hear a news of a bomb attack. Because it would be mitigated to human factor and security. But if this is a bulkhead seal failure it would mean people are not learning the lessons of Japan 123, China 611, and other pressurization failures and dodgy repairs etc.