66 Dead: Egyptair Flight 804 Crashed Into the Mediterranean

[jwocky]

Okay ...

Vincent, you understand more about planes than I do, however, I know more about bombs and probably also radar (should I even mention this in a public forum?) Well bottom line here is, the plane was since short after Paris at FL370, so yeah, they were already while up there and suddenly the forgot how to handle that and started veer wildly around? Not too mention that those guys flew that route weekly at FL370. So, highly unlikely.

The other thing is, of course, if a bomb goes up at FL370, the plane starts to disintegrate there, but since bombs one can smuggle in planes are usually not really big, it is not like a big fireball and thousand little pieces. What actually happens is you get a hole in the fuselage and the cables on the side the bomb explodes are also gone. Now, for most systems, there are two cables, one on each side. However, if the explosion is too near to the wings ... well all cables and connections going in a wing are obviously only on that side.
Secodn thing is, we talk about secondary, means transponder-based, radar. What the ATCs see on their screen are the transponder signals, not a real radar signal like with primary radar. So, you have a hole in your plane, you're going down, do you take the time to flip off the battery switch or stop the APU? Or the generator on the jet that is still with you? Of course not, but that means, you have electricity and that means, the transponder sends still your code. Till 10,000ft when what is left of you is under the signal horizon. So ... well, the plane started to disintegrate after a relative small load of explosives. We can see, that the initial event happened at FL370 by the sudden movement. But it's only a little over 40seconds of falling down to 10,000 feet.

There is another detail that makes me thinking. After the plane went down, it took two hours till the emergency beacon signal was received. So, why that gap? The only explanation is, the beacon, probably a water activated device, was still stuck in the wreckage on the sea bottom till it floated free. So it was sending, only under water which made it impossible for the signal to come through.

[HJ1an]

Well bottom line here is, the plane was since short after Paris at FL370, so yeah, they were already while up there and suddenly the forgot how to handle that and started veer wildly around?

KL-666's scenario is that the plane forces them to go without AP FBW, or Alternate Law as we've discussed many times, so while it's plausible.. but unlikely if that bomb threat was actually real to be such a coincidence..

[jwocky]

But then, why would the plane force them to do anything after being already on FL370 for hours? What changed at this moment?

About the bomb threat ...that is actually the one thing making me frown on the bomb theory. Because usually, if someone has already picked a plane to blow up, threats are made, if at all, less specific to prevent that the attack can be stopped.
However, if someone though the plan was fool proof, there is a chance, this someone wanted also to demonstrate "you can't protect you planes, not even if you know which one it will hit." Which would be kind of consistent with the behaviour of ISIS lately. They also announced their bomb attacks in Baghdad very specifically.

[KL-666]

Correct about the start of events in my story, HJ1an.

The thing is that in the first day or so after such event we get all sorts of contradicting statements via the media. Anything can be not true a few hours later, so we can not build big stories on them. The moment to start thinking of how events might have unfolded is often about a month after, when an interim report comes out with some information from the boxes too.

Currently we have only:

- plane is found
- plane is not found
- plane is found

- ELT is received by X
- X denies receiving ELT
- Is it now confirmed again?

How sure can we be about the Greek primary radar plot now?

Someone remembers he heard via a friend of his friend that there was a bomb threat on this plane. Well, i am quite sure there are bomb threats on many planes. Such almost standard bomb threat does not make much of an evidence.

Really more confirmed information is needed before speculation can start.

Kind regards, Vincent

[jwocky]

Well, we can think ...

If you look for example when the message came that a signal from a beacon was received, you see, that Egyptian planes impossible could have reached the search area already. The first one would have been the Greek Frigate and the Hercules.
So ... the Greek get a signal (because they are already there)
The Egyptians don't (because they are still on the way)
The Egyptians say they didn't get a signal (of course, they didn't)

So, as in every investigation, a lot of people say something, but the first thing, a clever investigator has to do is to ask, what is even possible and what not. I mean tow hours after the plane disappeared form the radar ... add about half an hour till the Egyptian military even got word. Then, what do they have at hand? Alex is not really a base used by long range planes. It could have been used to refuel F-16s coming somewhere from the Sinai. But however you turn and twist it, there was no way, at 4:26 an Egyptian plane was near enough to receive the signal, so it had to be a Greek unit. So, if the Egyptian military says, they don't have that signal ... well, they couldn't have it to begin with.

Well and why do you use the term "primary radar"? The nearest base of the Greek would be the helicopter base on Karpathos. That is an air field, more or less, not a surveillance station. If they would have a big primary radar station there, it would make me really wonder. What they have there is a secondary station because the ATCs sit there.

And of course, you left out the time line. The ATC talks to the pilot two minutes before the plane left Greek air space and there is no indicator of anything being wrong. 1 minute into Egyptian air space the plane swings left, then spins right and crashes in the see. So ... something changed in those three minutes and it changed so rapidly, there was no time for a distress call. How many things can happen so fast and without forewarning? Either something fast rotating went out of whack or an explosion. Since it was the fifth flight of that day, statistical probability is, the plane wouldn't have made it even to Paris to begin with if it was for example a maintenance problem.

[KL-666]

See in your last post many things go wrong already, Jwocky.

If it was not primary radar, then the whole story of the movements the plane made becomes rather quicksand. We can not trust the transponder to be accurate in a distress. Often enough the boxes have proven it wrong, or highly besides what really happened.

In my timeline information, atc spoke last 40 minutes before the event with the pilots, when they entered Greek airspace. 2 minutes before leaving the airspace, atc only called but got no response.

Kind regards, Vincent

[N3266G]

On May 19th, 2016, The Islamic Terror group brought down EgyptAir Flight 804, with 69 souls on board 59 passengers and 10 crew (I don't remember the specifics of the crew. But i Believe that it was Captain, First Officer, 5 Flight Attendants and 3 Security Personnel.) Feel free to relay any new developments on the search for the aircraft and the passengers in this thread.

[legoboyvdlp]

Third topic about MS804
So it was confirmed re terrorism?

[KL-666]

Not again! this is the third thread on the same. Merge it quick, before there are replies making the merged discussion harder to follow.

Kind regards, Vincent

[N3266G]

@Lego

Yes. ISIS claimed responsibility for the attack this morning.